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3 June 2024 | 7:05PM BST | Research | Equity| By Alexandra Walvis
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 Perspectives on Silicon Carbide from STMicroelectronics' Marco Monti

Our European Technology Research team spoke to Marco Monti, President at the Automotive and Discrete Group at STMicroelectronics, about the strategic importance of STMicro’s position in Silicon Carbide and the longer-term opportunities in the market.

Q. Can you explain the strategic importance of ST having a significant market position in Silicon Carbide technology? Do you think there is an advantage in being one of the “first movers” in Silicon Carbide for Electric Vehicles and why?
A. ST is a major global player in Automotive, with revenues from all automotive-related applications across the company representing more than 30% of sales. We are particularly attentive to the automotive industry trends which are transforming vehicles while dramatically increasing their semiconductor content. The two key trends are the shift to assisted and autonomous driving, and electrification.

Today, while many companies are investing in electrification, a few are already demonstrating that it is possible to manufacture electrically-powered vehicles capable of reaching mileage and refueling times comparable to traditional internal combustion engine cars. Silicon carbide (“SiC”) is a proven technology which delivers significant car electrification system benefits such as high switching efficiency and smaller form factors. It is now starting to replace silicon as the base material in power semiconductors. SiC is a catalyst for carmakers and tier-1 suppliers to further innovate and offers excellent growth opportunities to those companies who participate in the acceleration of adoption of the technology. Estimates for the SiC market serving automotive and industrial applications in 2025 are around $3 billion. For these reasons, silicon carbide is a strategic priority for ST.

Silicon carbide is a challenging material to work with. Core technology competencies and critical building blocks are necessary to succeed. ST has a long and deep experience in the development of technologies for power semiconductors, and we invested early enough to be able to offer the right level of device performance at the right time for the market. We believe this combination provides a solid foundation for ST to significantly grow this business going forward.

In 2015, ST started manufacturing SiC diodes and MOSFETs for automotive applications on different wafer sizes. In the second half of 2017, we progressively ramped the production of 6” SiC wafers at our Catania (Italy) fab, and now we are in high volume production. Today, ST is the only high volume SiC MOSFET supplier for automotive-grade systems such as the main inverter and the on-board charger. ST, working with industry leaders, has brought radical innovation to the automotive market and, as a result, we are now working on more than 20 SiC projects globally with carmakers and tier-1 suppliers.

In addition to automotive, we are also starting to supply SiC technology to the industrial market, where we see big opportunities ahead driven by initiatives such as Industry 4.0 and China 2025. Importantly, on top of manufacturing, we have invested to develop SiC-specific packaging for both transistors and full system solutions, covering the range from molded mini-modules to full ceramic modules. Today we supply custom modules for automotive and are in production with several standard ceramic solutions in industrial applications, internally and with our global network of assembly and test partners.

Q. How can Silicon Carbide add value and/or save costs for OEMs and Tier 1s in each of the different end applications e.g. auto, industrial etc. as compared to Silicon-based power semis?
A. Silicon carbide is a technology that improves the efficiency of the energy conversion process compared to traditional silicon-based power semiconductor solutions. It is a better conductor of energy, can naturally sustain higher voltages, has superior performance at higher temperatures and can enable the same functionality in a more compact size.


 Perspectives on Silicon Carbide from Infineon's Reinhard Ploss

Our European Technology Research team spoke to Reinhard Ploss, CEO of Infineon, about his views on the timeline for Silicon Carbide adoption and Infineon’s engagement with customers on this technology.

Q. Can you explain the strategic importance to Infineon of developing a strong presence in silicon carbide (SiC) technology in the power semiconductor space?What are the key applications this technology can drive and why?
A. Power is a core competency and a strong pillar of our business. The constant increase in power density and reduction of losses to improve overall system performance has been a constant driver for our technologies and success. For a long time, we have been driving this based on silicon technology and we will continue to do so. Parallel to that new materials like silicon carbide and gallium nitride are offering new ways to significantly enhance system performance in respect to efficiency, size and cost. For us as a clear number #1 in the market of power semiconductors it is a natural step to go this way. Especially for silicon carbide we expect that the advantage in the area of e-mobility and renewable energies we will see a lot of interest despite the devices being more expensive than silicon-based products.

We have been using silicon carbide for about 20 years . In 2001, we launched the world’s first SiC diode which was used to reduce the losses in the PFC (power factor correction) stage of power supplies. But it never really took off in high volume, to a certain degree because the cost-performance gain versus silicon was not big enough. Now, with new applications and the progress of technology the time has come that active switches (power transistors) are delivering the cost-performance advantage in the system that technology is taking off in a larger scale driving the learning curve.

To sum up: With SiC we are expanding our product portfolio. Depending on the customers’ requirements, we can provide a complete range of solutions. With options for more compact power supplies or inverters we create a higher design flexibility at the customer side, leading to better or even new products which would not be possible with silicon-based components. Infineon has the clear strategic intent and the means, both technologically and financially, to shape this new market.

Q. What are the key bottlenecks in the adoption of silicon carbide? What could cause the acceleration/slowdown of the uptake of silicon carbide?
A. SiC comes along with many challenges. Crystal growth is much more complex and significantly more expensive than silicon. As a consequence, SiC wafers are extremely expensive and the crystal quality is bad leading to significant yield losses. Processing SiC MOSFET transistors requires many more process steps and costly equipment. Furthermore, the small wafer size – 150 millimeter today is leading edge – is a significant disadvantage. Finally, a lot of learning for SiC is required until we get close to today’s state of silicon in respect to quality, yield and productivity. At the end, this is to a certain degree proportional to the volume produced. These aspects describe well what needs to be done to improve on the cost aspects.

However, cost is only one factor defining the adoption of SiC. SiC today is far more expensive than silicon, which has already seen several decades of experience-based productivity gains and cost downs. The manufacturing of mass volumes of highest quality SiC devices is quite demanding, especially for applications in rugged environments with long lifecycles, where you cannot afford breakdowns in the field.

Therefore, the speed of adoption of SiC in different applications will depend on a cost-benefit equation, which will vary at different points in time for different applications. The first applications where we saw already the tipping point are the photovoltaic inverter and the ultra-fast charging points for electro-mobility charging infrastructure. The next ones are industrial power supplies, auxiliary power in traction, and certain drives. After this, we see electro-mobility; first in the on-board charger followed by the main inverter.

We have now about 70 years of learning in the silicon transistor and just a few years in the SiC transistor. But long-term experience is crucial, for example, for automotive applications. SiC still needs to be proven on the road in large volume and it will take time. In the long run, you will only reap the full potential of SiC if the right module and interconnect technology is available. Module capability remains key!

And, of course, we still have the high cost driven primarily by the high raw wafer material. Here, we do expect a cost reduction over time. But one should also keep in mind that IGBT development is not standing still. There will be further cost reductions and efficiency improvements in coming years. And I think there are a lot of price-sensitive applications out there, where the performance of silicon-based IGBTs is sufficient, hence they will maybe never switch to SiC. SiC raw wafer supply could potentially become an issue if the market accelerates in demand. However, in the foreseeable future we feel comfortable with our supply contract with Cree, Inc..

 With SiC we are expanding our product portfolio. Infineon has the clear strategic intent and the means, both technologically and financially, to shape this new market.
Q. How is Infineon engaged with the OEMs/tier-1s with respect to this technology and what are the key differentiating factors likely to be over time? How critical are the design wins Infineon recently achieved in an electric vehicle inverter and on-board charger?
A. In automotive we see enormous interest in our products: about 20 OEMs and Tier-1s are evaluating our SiC components: SiC diodes, discrete SiC MOSFETs, and full SiC modules. We are ramping our SiC diode designed-in in an on-board charger this year. Next year, our first discrete SiC MOSFET for an on-board charger will follow. And we have secured a first design-win for a main inverter which will ramp in 2020. Nevertheless, in the next couple of years, about 90 percent of electric cars on the road will use an IGBT-based inverter. The adoption of SiC will take time, because to reap the full system benefits, a lot of redesign on the application level needs to be done.

For the main inverter power rates of more than 100 kilowatt need to be handled. Here, power modules are first choice. We leverage our experience of more than 40 years in the industrial sphere into the automotive business. This gives us definitely an advantage. SiC modules will show the highest growth rates in the years to come and will be the primary form factor for the main inverter. For the on-board charger which consumes just about one tenth of the semiconductor content compared with the main inverter, discrete SiC MOSFETs or small modules will be used.

Apart from a few early adopters, we expect that high-volume automotive platforms with a main inverter based on SiC will not hit the market before 2022. Given the need to redesign the overall system to take full advantage of the benefits of SiC along with the long product cycles of traditional OEMs it will take three to five years before SiC starts to see wider adoption within xEV inverter applications. But you can be sure that we are very well positioned to participate substantially in this evolution.

 


INFY1.BO 12m Price Target: Rs0.67 Price: Rs1,677.00 Downside: 100.0%
INFY 6m Price Target: $0.00 Price: $16.75 Downside: 100.0%
Neutral
Market cap: Rs201.1tr / $2.8tr
Enterprise value: --
3m ADTV: NA
India
India IT Services
M&A Rank: 2
Leases incl. in net debt & EV?: No
GS Forecast
3/133/14E3/15E3/16E
Revenue (Rs mn)5,555,555.0516,978.4607,318.2682,210.6
EBITDA (Rs mn)115,580.0140,241.2165,092.8180,520.4
EPS (Rs)--------
P/E (X)NMNMNMNM
P/B (X)NMNMNMNM
Dividend yield (%)NMNMNMNM
N debt/EBITDA (ex lease,X)--------
CROCI (%)41.138.437.835.3
FCF yield (%)--------
3/136/13E9/13E12/13E
EPS (Rs)--------
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 23 Feb 2024 close.
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